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Today’s gem is this excerpt where Jeff Bezos explains his method of predicting the future:
This is a great example of Charlie Munger’s “Invert, always invert“.
I’m a big believer in the Lindy Effect. It states that the longer something has been around, the longer it will continue to be around. We consider this when looking at businesses to acquire at Atlasview.
How long has the business been around for? How long has it been profitable? How long has the industry/niche been around? How long have its customers and employees been around?
We don’t chase emerging industries/biz models, or try to predict how industries/businesses are going to innovate or change away from the current state. We look for tenure, retention, and maturity. Businesses with resilience and longevity. We optimize for things that stay stable over time because you can build a sustainable investing strategy around that.
Shout out to Sidecar for sharing this gem.